This time Rosa plays the same role as Eva in EP1: she provides the argument with Battler and nudges him towards the truth. The reason why she would side with Yasu is complex. First off, she needs money. She also had a bad relationship with her siblings. Finally, she learns that Kinzo is dead and his death was kept secret. That, combined with the gold in Yasu’s possession, would mean that she had all the financial and psychological incentive to betray her siblings.
Maria’s candy was destroyed by Rosa but then Beatrice used “magic” to fix it in front of Rosa and Maria.
The method itself is quite obvious, but nevertheless it gives some insight into the events: It was specifically shown that Kanon had a pumpkin candy that was given to him by Maria earlier, but she didn’t accept it when he tried to give it back after her own candy was destroyed because it wasn’t the same candy. After that, all that’s needed was a simple sleight of hand as Beatrice. She specifically asked Maria to close her eyes, therefore allowing the magic/deception. Rosa “witnessing” the magic and later reporting on it also solidifies her status as an accomplice.
Rosa is given the first letter by Beatrice.
Contrast with the first episode. Note that she is not dressed as the witch Beatrice but instead in the more “contemporary” costume, meaning the meeting probably did happen for real and it was Yasu in disguise. Yasu wants to give the letter to Maria like in EP1 but is interrupted by Rosa, therefore she appears in front of her as well.
An actual 19th(sic) person, Beatrice, appeared on the island. She was seen by Rosa, Maria and Kyrie and was acknowledged by the servants.
Rosa and Maria seeing her was clearly a pseudo-event, therefore the narration cannot be trusted. Considering the later events, it is fairly certain that Rosa became an accomplice at that point. However, Kyrie’s account, while the narrated event is still doubtful, can be considered genuine, as she stated that she met her in front of Battler and was killed in the first twilight, therefore it can be said with a high certainty that she wasn’t an accomplice who would lie about something like this.
Therefore, it is fairly certain that there was an actual person dressed as Beatrice. It is also notable that she did not address herself as Beatrice and that Kyrie noted her resemblance to the portrait, meaning it is almost certain that it was Yasu.
Maria knows an awful lot of things about magic circles and the like without any possible source.
It was established that she learned it from ‘Beatrice’. Since Yasu has access to Kinzo’s study and it was shown that Kinzo’s books also contain these circles, it is reasonable to assume that this was the chain of knowledge, and it also explains how Maria instantly recognizes the specific magic circles, since they have been taught to her in advance.
Krauss, Eva, Rudolf, Natsuhi, Hideyoshi and Kyrie were found in the chapel around a table full of Halloween decorations and with three gold bars. Their stomachs were cut open and stuffed with sweets.
There are two possibilities: The six victims were either knocked out and were taken to the chapel during the night, or they went there on their own accord in order to meet with Beatrice and got put to sleep/poisoned during the meeting. The latter would also explain the gold bars found at the scene.
The door was never locked to begin with, so they needed no key. Whether the table was prepared beforehand or during the night is inconsequential. Once they were unconscious/dead, their stomachs were cut open by Yasu (therefore fulfilling #10) and they were filled up with sweets.
Then, in the morning, Rosa went to the cousin’s room to get the key (or rather, to get Maria’s notebook for the magic circle but took the key as well, fulfilling #6, #7 and #9. Once the preparations were complete they called for Nanjo and the cousins followed, thus allowing Battler to witness the scene.
This time around the circle wasn’t Maria’s doing but Rosa’s, as it was directly foreshadowed that she had access to Maria’s notebook with the detailed drawings.
The gold bars are explained by that Yasu’s presence who had solved the epitaph a while back, thus giving her the money needed for the bribery of Rosa and others.
Jessica is found dead in her room with a stake in her back. The room was locked from the outside and Kanon’s body was missing.
Yasu discarded Kanon while inside the room (fulfilling #6) and killed Jessica by stabbing her in the back. Afterwards Yasu used her second master key (established by #4) to lock the door from the outside and then changed into Shannon.
The magic circle on the outside of the door was written up using Maria’s notes.
The master-key issue is circumvented by Yasu actually having two master keys, therefore she could lock the door with Shannon’s key.
A huge number of red truths referring to this “closed room” is inconsequential, since they are just denying Battler’s random potshots at the solution.
The reason why the door was locked on the first place with a master-key can have multiple reasons. First off, it could have been used to put the blame on Kanon and thus let the rest of the servants move freely (which was torpedoed by Battler), but it could have also been a deliberate clue by Yasu for Battler to pick up on, namely the explanation as of why Kanon would have two master keys.
(note: This should be a band’s name. :P)
Kumasawa and Nanjo were killed in the servants’, apparently by Kanon, but their bodies are missing. The door was closed.
The faux closed room was created on the notion that the servants told the truth. In reality, they were killed and then moved without problem.
Their bodies were found outside later, also making them into the 7th and 8th Twilight victims, though it’s fairly certain they were killed before the death of Gohda, George and Shannon in Natsuhi’s room.
Again, the large amount of Red Truths stem from Battler asking the wrong questions in-story.
Gohda’s, George’s and Shannon’s bodies were found in Natsuhi’s room. The room was locked. Inside, Gohda’s body was found by the door with a stake in his chest, George’s body was found on the floor at the back with a stake in his stomach and Shannon’s body was found on the drawer, with a hole on her forehead and a stake next to her.
This is a tough one, but thankfully Ryukishi comes to the rescue with the following quote from an interview:
K Still, the locked room in Natsuhi’s chamber is a special case. If Shannon actually committed suicide, there is nobody who can get rid of the weapon. If you think of Genji finalizing that, then it just happens smoothly, but…hmm *laugh*.
R Because we have come so far, I think I can give you an answer, though it is basically the same trick as with the well. Shannon died face down, slumped over the makeup cabinet. It’s a really simple trick. You tie the weapon to a heavy object with a string, then you throw the heavy object behind the cabinet. And then it’s the classic trick, when you commit suicide, the gun is pulled behind the cabinet towards the heavy object.
K So that’s how it went?!
R I thought, because you solved the riddle of the well as well, that you would get this trick without any problem. I especially wrote that she was “slumped over, face down, over the makeup cabinet”. And while the other two in the room were actually pierced by the stakes, Shannon was not. That is why you can imagine her being the last to die in that room, because there was nobody left to insert the stake into the gunwound. There was never a full inspection of that special room, so that means that the weapon was left within it.
With that said, the following can be concluded: Shannon killed both Gohda and George, locked the door from the inside, put the Key into George’s pocket, and then committed suicide in the fashion described in the interview.
As for why Shannon/Yasu committed suicide, the best answer would be that she lost faith in Battler after his breakdown in the servants’ room. Note that Yasu’s original plans involved her dying no matter what and that the trick for hiding the murder weapon was probably only there to give another clue to Battler.
Battler finds a sealed letter inside the parlor. The doors and windows were all locked.
It was Rosa who put the letter there. It was explicitly shown that she went back and checked all the windows before they left, giving her ample time to leave the letter there.
Genji leads Battler into Kinzo’s study where he meets with Kinzo and Beatrice.
We do know for sure that Kinzo is dead from the very beginning, so the entire scene is in the pseudo-realm. Since Battler is drunken at this point, it absolves his detective-privileges of objective observation. The rest of the people on the island die when the bomb goes off.